The transition to electric vehicles (EVs) is a crucial step toward decarbonizing the transportation sector. However, integrating this new technology disrupts existing supply chains and introduces complex challenges related to vehicle supply, material circularity, and life cycle environmental impacts. These challenges are further shaped by existing trade interdependencies, shifting benefits and burdens across different supply chain stages. Understanding trade dynamics is essential to ensure the transition is efficient, maximizes regional benefits, and avoids disproportionate environmental burdens. This dissertation examines the EV transition in North America amid longstanding regional trade integration, focusing on how cross-border dynamics influence the allocation of economic opportunities and environmental risks across the region. Methodologically, the research integrates trade flow modeling, system dynamics simulation, and regionally expanded life cycle assessment. This multi-model approach evaluates scenarios of EV production and adoption between the United States, Mexico, and beyond, linking new vehicle supply with second-hand exports, battery end-of-life outcomes, and associated environmental impacts.Key findings indicate that evolving trade and industrial policies will strongly shape EV supply chains. For example, Mexico—currently supplying 15% of US light-duty vehicles (LDVs) but only 6% of its EVs—must shift roughly half of its vehicle production to EVs by 2035 to maintain market share. System dynamics projections show that used EV exports could accelerate Mexico’s fleet electrification, with EVs reaching nearly 50% of vehicles on the road and nearly all imported used cars by 2050. However, these second-hand EVs also lead to a disproportionate increase in spent batteries, underscoring circular economy challenges. The life cycle analysis finds that while exporting used EVs to lower-income markets substantially reduces operational emissions compared to conventional vehicle trade, it can also increase certain life cycle impacts, such as human toxicity if receiving countries lack robust EOL battery management systems, raising environmental justice concerns. Amid recent shifts in U.S. foreign policy that have strained relationships with regional partners, this dissertation underscores the need for coordinated North American policies and industry strategies—from nearshoring production to battery recycling initiatives and export regulations— to ensure that the EV transition is not only efficient and environmentally sound, but that its benefits and burdens are shared fairly across the region.
