Towards a Just Electric Vehicle Transition in North America: Analysis of Regional Trade and its Effects on Supply and Life Cycle Impacts

Electric vehicle (EV) adoption promises emissions reduction and economic growth but poses challenges like production scalability and environmental impacts. The North American trade bloc (NA) stands out as a compelling case study in the global EV landscape. Not only is it one of the world's largest light-duty vehicle (LDV) production hubs and consumer markets, with rapidly increasing demand for EVs, but also features significant flows of second-hand (SH) vehicle trade from the United States (US) to Mexico. Mexico, a key stakeholder in North American LDV supply, accounts for 24% of regional production and 57% of exports in 2022. However, Mexico receives nearly 80% of regional SH vehicle exports, adversely affecting the environment, public safety, and the country's automotive industry. With increasing EV demand, EVs have entered the international SH vehicle market, risking economic and environmental burdens through spent batteries. This research addresses challenges associated with the EV transition in North America.

Chapter 1 introduces the Model for iNternational EV Trade (MONET), utilizing input-output modeling, matrix balancing, and policy analysis to assess EV demand effects on the region's automotive industry. Insights from MONET support policy and industrial planning in response to the EV transition.

Chapters 2 and 3 focus on US-Mexico SH EV exports, using Industrial ecology methods, including system dynamics modeling, material flow analysis, and life cycle assessment. Scenario analyses anticipate exported SH EV flows and life cycle performance, informing policy interventions to support regional critical mineral circularity and mitigate environmental burdens, maximizing regional benefits. 

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