A Framework for Projecting the Potential Statewide Vehicle Miles Traveled (VMT) Reduction from State-Level Strategies in California

In this paper, the authors consider the evidence available and assumptions needed for projecting statewide vehicle miles traveled (VMT) reductions for each category of strategies. The authors' goal is to provide a framework for projecting the magnitude of reductions that the state might expect for the different strategies. This framework helps to illuminate the sequence of events that would produce VMT reductions and highlights important gaps in knowledge that increase the uncertainty of the projections. Despite uncertainties, the evidence justifies state action on these strategies: the available evidence shows that the strategies considered in this paper are likely to reduce VMT if promoted by state policy.