Land Use Development Transit Ridership Calculator – Phase 1: Blueprint

Land use development projects around transit may take on many forms, thereby having various effects on transit use in the project vicinity. One approach, Transit-Oriented Development (TOD), is the creation of compact, walkable, pedestrian-oriented, mixed-use projects centered around stations along transit priority corridors (rail, bus rapid transit). There is a need for research on the quantifiable impacts of land use development projects, and TOD in particular, on transit ridership to guide policy and investments in TOD for future transit plans. This study draws on a comprehensive review of the literature on ridership outcomes impacted by TOD and related built environment characteristics, transit service characteristics, and sociodemographics. The research team conducted 16 practitioner interviews to contextualize the literature review and gather practitioner input related to ridership estimation for land use development projects around transit. Both the literature review and interview results are then used to inform a blueprint for the planning and implementation of a TOD ridership calculator to assist in local planning as well as policy and funding allocation decision-making. The proposed calculator improves on the current hugely variable methods for estimating outcomes based on land use development projects around transit. The report presents recommendations for the necessary data, potential model formulae, and model structures for incorporation into the calculator. The calculator will provide well-supported, transparent, reliable numbers for local governments and transit operators as well as state agencies and grant application evaluators.