Transit-Oriented Development Ridership Calculator - Phase 1

Transit-Oriented Development (TOD) is the creation of compact, walkable, pedestrian-oriented, mixed-use communities centered around stations along transit priority corridors (rail, bus rapid transit). The State of California has established several policies to support TOD, as have local jurisdictions and the Federal Transit Administration (FTA). There is a need for research on the quantifiable impacts of TOD on transit ridership to guide policy and investments in TOD for future transit plans. There is good literature on the impacts of various factors (fares, gas prices, service levels, TNCs, etc.) on ridership levels. There is also literature on the impact of land use generally (employment/population density, land use types) on transit ridership. TOD impacts on ridership, however, are not well researched to date because data on TODs and the residents that move into them is not available at a consistent level. Agencies and municipalities applying for state grants provide estimates of ridership impacts and new development catalyzed by the project, but producing well-supported, reliable numbers in their applications remains a challenge. Some regions have regional ridership models they use in service planning, but these models are generally not designed to forecast changes associated with a single building or neighborhood. Other regions do not have ridership models at all and must rely on ad-hoc approaches to estimate ridership impacts. There is also a need to provide consistent, transparent transit ridership estimates so that more-resourced agencies applying for grants do not out-compete less-resourced agencies that don't have their own regional ridership models. Different local or regional transit ridership model methodologies may not be transparent to audiences, including grant application evaluators. One way to standardize the process and level the playing field between agencies is through the creation of an easy-to-use calculator for estimating the ridership impacts of TOD projects. Through this tool, ridership estimates for applicants seeking funding or zoning variances for TOD projects will be able to document how the projects will impact ridership. These estimates will be comparable across projects thanks to using a standardized methodology. This project will lay the groundwork for creating such a calculator, by reviewing the existing literature on the topic and identifying an actionable plan and concrete model structure to implement the calculator.

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