Automated Vehicles are Expected to Increase Driving and Emissions Without Policy Intervention

Researchers explored what an automated vehicle future in the San Francisco Bay Area might look like by simulating:

1. A 100% personal automated vehicle future and its effects on travel and greenhouse emissions.
2. The introduction of an automated taxi service with plausible per-mile fares and its effects on conventional personal vehicle and transit travel.

The researchers used the Metropolitan Transportation Commission’s activity-based travel demand model (MTC-ABM) and MATSim, an agent-based transportation model, to carry out the simulations. This policy brief summarizes the results, which provide insight into the relative benefits of each service and automated vehicle technology and the potential market for these services.