Role of Vehicle Technology on Use: Joint Analysis of the Choice of Plug-in Electric Vehicle Ownership and Miles Traveled

Role of Vehicle Technology on Use: Joint Analysis of the Choice of Plug-in Electric Vehicle Ownership and Miles Traveled

New fuel technologies like zero-emission vehicles and mobility solutions like shared rides are expected to bring significant changes to overall travel demand as households adjust to these alternatives. While there is a relatively good understanding of household vehicle choice and travel behavior in the context of gasoline vehicles, this is not the case for plug-in electric vehicles (PEVs). The multi-year PEV owner survey conducted by the PH&EV Research center at UC Davis provides an opportunity to perform a robust analysis of PEV choice and usage decisions by households within an integrated framework that captures the joint nature of the decisions. In the initial analysis, a copula-based joint multinomial discrete-continuous model will be estimated that integrates vehicle choice and VMT decisions by capturing the effect of correlated, unobserved factors. Second, the model will be used to test implications for policy scenarios that address the purchase cost and/or the cost of driving a PEV. Finally, the lack of adequate choice-and-usage models for PEVs is a well-known deficiency of multiple state-level travel demand models, currently the subject of work by UC ITS researchers. We will coordinate with them to determine how our models can contribute to these efforts.

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