Passenger transportation in the U.S. is transforming rapidly. Existing models are not adequately equipped to forecast change under high uncertainty. In this study, the authors combine expert insights and quantitative modeling in a two-step process to create scenarios for U.S. passenger transportation in 2030 to aid transportation planning. Using inputs from 34 experts, they develop three distinct scenarios and estimate vehicle miles traveled (VMT), carbon emissions, and electrification levels using a transportation activity accounting tool. The Hop & Drive scenario points to a dismal picture – a slower economy, greater suburban growth, and higher driving levels. Mapped by Directives, paints a future shaped by ambitious policies at the local and federal level accelerating electrification, reviving U.S. mass transit, and lowering driving levels. The last scenario, Tech Dazzles, imagines what rapid technology improvements and adoption can lead to – an increasingly automated world, with a Mobility-as-a-Service paradigm starting to realize.
