extreme event

Researchers developed a data-driven, site-specific method that can be implemented at multiple vulnerable sites throughout San Francisco Bay and other low-lying coastal areas across the State of California. A simple statistical model combined with forecast error correction is used to produce a 4-day water level forecast at 3 stations near HWY 37, Sonoma/Marin County, California. 

This project improved assessment of both overall probability and short-term forecasts of water level for specific locations in San Francisco Bay that are vulnerable to flooding associated with sea level rise. The authors have developed probability assessment and forecasts through developing data-based, site-specific, model-independent approaches, which can be compared with and help to improve regional models of coastal flooding. This is a pilot project that could be replicated at many other vulnerable locations around San Francisco Bay and elsewhere.