Truck Choice Modeling: Understanding California’s Transition to ZEV Trucks Taking into Account Truck Technologies, Costs, and Fleet Decision Behavior

Principal Investigator: Lew Fulton | University of California, Davis
Co-Principal Investigator(s): Marshall Miller | University of California, Davis
Research Team: Qian Wang | University of California, Davis

This project presents sustainable freight data and a truck purchase decision choice models to better understand how California’s fleets will transition to low carbon technologies and fuels, especially zero-emission technologies such as electric and fuel cell trucks. Researchers developed data comparing vehicle/technology performance, vehicle capital and operating costs, mileage and performance requirements, and other important purchase decision factors for different types of trucks and fleets. The project also developed a discrete choice model for alternative fueled trucks to assess the impacts of various attributes on the purchase decisions of various types of fleets, and provides technology adoption scenarios.

Researchers investigated critical factors that affect fleet purchase decisions, reasonable adoption rates for new technologies, and the effect of infrastructure deployment on purchases. Understanding these critical factors will enable the development of more realistic scenarios for a transition to low-carbon truck transportation in California and help identify relevant policies. It will assist the state’s implementation of the statewide freight plan.

Status: Completed
Funding: $85,418.48
Sponsors: Caltrans

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